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Ferret's Swan's Wagers

Posted on: Tue 08 Jan 2008

Several rounds ago I advised you all to "go large" on the Albion to win the Johnstone's Paints Trophy at 16/1.

Tonight is the day of reckoning. We are perhaps only 90 minutes away from making that a very realistic possibility.

Bet365 are convinced that the winner will come from the Southern Section, pricing up all four remaining competitors lower than the first Northern side.

Swansea are the outright favourites at 2/1 and Brighton are currently 6/1. Gillingham (9/2) and MK Dons (11/2) complete the quartet, before you see Stockport and Morecambe (both 7/1) on the distant horizon.

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Tonight  the Swans have been installed as the 4/6 odds-on favourites and, at first glance, and taking Saturday's defeat by Mansfield into account, that looks a fair play.

However, the home side suffered arguably an even bigger upset on Saturday when they were held to a draw by Havant & Waterlooville, and I think that, for betting purposes, it is probably best to ignore both FA Cup resutls and instead focus on other form lines.

There is a clear one available to us, namely the league match between these two sides a couple of months ago, when the Albion nearly stole the points at the death, only being denied by the woodwork. 

That result alone makes the odds on Brighton (7/2) attractive, but I'm going to plump for the draw (13/5). Don't forget that all outright wagers are settled on 90 minutes play.

A draw would take the game to penalties, but that doesn't phase me having witnessed the Segaulls progress at the Den in this tournament last season.

With major questions over the line-up of both sides, Bet365 have, perhaps wisely, decided to swerve goalscorer betting tonight and therefore the Draw is my only recommendation.

Click here to place your bet with Bet365! 

Summary

Swansea v Brighton - Draw @ 13/5

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